Energy-constrained and low-carbon scenarios for the transportation and logistics industry

• Pages: 142-166
• Date: 09 May 2016
• Published date: 09 May 2016
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJLM-12-2013-0150
• Author: Heiko A. von der Gracht,Inga-Lena Darkow
• Subject Matter: Management science & operations,Logistics

Energy-constrained and

low-carbon scenarios for the

transportation and

logistics industry

Heiko A. von der Gracht

Supply Chain Management,

Friedrich-Alexander-University (FAU) Erlangen-Nuremberg,

Nuremberg, Germany, and

Inga-Lena Darkow

Logistics Management, Department of Business Studies and Economics,

University Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract

Purpose –There is consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to

focus more strongly on environmental concerns. Sustainability will play a major role within the

business and has an impact especially on the distant future. Thus, supply chain executives are

challenged in designing sustainable supply chains for the future. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach –The authors develop expert-based scenarios, which describe how

future supply chains could evolve by 2030. The authors focus on the transportation and logistics

industry’s perspective to provide an industry-internal view. The data collection is based on an internet-

based Delphi survey. Overall, 48 top executives from 20 countries, representing academic,

governmental, and industrial perspectives, participated in the survey.

Findings –The authors operationalized the research question into five concrete sub-topics relevant

for investigation: energy and emissions, consumer behaviour, future transport modes, design of future

supply chains, and innovation. The authors derive five Delphi-based scenarios defined by clusters of

their impact and expected probability: measurement and control of CO

2

-emissions; integrated low

energy logistics systems; business-as-usual logistics; no-frills logistics and alternative fuels. Each

cluster contributes differently to supply chain strategy.

Originality/value –The authors address the major issues and challenges experts expect regarding

future supply chains in an energy-constrained, low-carbon world. Five scenario clusters evolved for

supply chain strategy development. Finally, the authors make recommendations towards strategic

planning in the transportation and logistics industry.

Keywords Transportation, Decision making, Supply chain management, Delphi method,

Scenario analysis, Strategy development

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

The effect of supply chains on environmental issues has been a focal point in recent

discussions. More than 20 per cent of worldwide energy consumption can be attributed to

transport activities (Aßmann and Sieber, 2005; Meyer, 2009). Furthermore, there is a broad

The International Journal of

Logistics Management

Vol. 27 No. 1, 2016

pp. 142-166

©Emerald Group Publishing Limited

0957-4093

DOI 10.1108/IJLM-12-2013-0150

Received 12 December 2013

Revised 27 July 2014

16 November 2014

Accepted 27 January 2015

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

www.emeraldinsight.com/0957-4093.htm

The authors are grateful for the valuable support of Dr Tobias Gnatzy, his insightful reflections

in various discussions and feedback on an earlier version of this paper. The authors would like to

thank Klaus-Dieter Ruske, Dr Peter Kauschke, Julia Reuter, Dr Elizabeth Montgomery from PwC,

and Janice Magel for their support and assistance. Further, the authors would also like to thank

all participants of the Delphi study as well as PwC Germany for the funding of the project.

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IJLM

27,1

consensus among experts that the design of future supply chains will have to focus more

strongly on environmental concerns (Seuring and Mueller, 2008; Soler et al., 2010; Thun

and Mueller, 2010; Azevedo et al., 2011) as well as the reduction of CO

2

-emissions and

energy consumption (Piecyk and McKinnon, 2010; Giddens, 2009; Carbone et al., 2012;

Schwanen et al., 2011). Sustainability will play a major role within the business in general

(Czinkota and Ronkainen, 2005) and has an impact especially on the distant future (Guest,

2010). Thus, supply chain executives are challenged in designing sustainable supply

chains for the future as well as continuously developing the capability of professional

sustainability management (Cheng et al., 2013; Wolf, 2013; Oberhofer and Fürst, 2013).

The consideration of long-term developments is crucial for developing robust

strategies for the future for successful supply chains (Singh, 2004; Carter et al., 2000;

Hickman et al., 2012). Companies that miss the opportunity to prepare for the future will

face risks and higher total costs compared to companies which systematically address

the question of how future supply chains may evolve (Melnyk et al., 2009). However,

decision makers and planners cannot prepare their organisations for only one future

situation. Rather, they have to imagine various alternatives of future scenarios to

broaden planning perspectives (Wright and Goodwin, 2009; Randall, 2009; Burt et al.,

2006; Hickman et al., 2012; Banister and Hickman, 2013). In uncertain decision-making

situations, scenario planning has been identified as one of the most appropriate

approaches for long-range planning and decision processes (Courtney et al., 1997;

Schoemaker, 2002; Phelps et al., 2001; Powell, 1992).

Assuming that supply chain executives will have to deal with scarce and limited

energy supply and the requirement to strongly reduce CO

2

-emissions, we developed

expert-based scenarios, which describe how future supply chains could become.

We focused on the transportation and logistics industry’s perspective to provide an

industry-internal view rather than external observations and studies. In reviewing the

relevant literature in this field, it becomes obvious that research has not sufficiently

studied long-term developments of these assumptions. Consequently, we aim to

provide answers to the overriding research question of how supply chains will evolve

by 2030. To do so, we conducted intensive desk and database research, interviewed

researchers in the field of supply chain management from different countries, and

conducted participatory workshops to identify drivers that will most likely shape

future supply chains. The data collection for scenario development was based on an

internet-based Delphi survey, which calculated the statistical group opinion directly

after experts’input in real-time. Due to the transportation and logistics industry’s high

degree of relevance for global supply chains, we included only top executives of this

industry in our panel. In total, 48 experts from 20 countries, representing academic,

governmental, and industrial perspectives, participated in the Delphi survey.

This research follows the call of Schwanen et al. (2011) to broaden the view on

transportation research and to integrate, for example social sciences perspectives. Here,

we discuss the energy-constrained and low-carbon future of transportation and supp ly

chains from the industry perspective and take various stakeholders into account.

Our research results support practitioners and researchers in confirming own strategic

assumptions, adjusting and challenging strategy, driving innovativeness, and setting

priorities and agendas.

2. Literature review

Within the scope of our literature review, we identified several academic articles and reports,

which discussed the long-term future of supply chains from a comprehensive perspective.

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Energy-

constrained

and low-carbon

scenarios