Education Universalization, Rural School Participation, and Population Density

• Published date: 01 July 2022
• Author: Xi Zhang,Scott Rozelle
• Date: 01 July 2022
• DOI: http://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12426

©2022 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

China & World Economy / 4–30, Vol. 30, No. 4, 2022

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*Xi Zhang (corresponding author), Post-doctoral Researcher, Institute of Population and Labor Economics,

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China. Email: zhangxicass@126.com; Scott Rozelle, Helen F.

Farnsworth Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, the US.

Email: rozelle@stanford.edu.

Education Universalization, Rural School

Participation, and Population Density

Xi Zhang, Scott Rozelle*

Abstract

In many developing countries, low population density may be a major reason for low

school participation in rural areas, and the problem is likely to worsen with rapid

urbanization. However, few studies have investigated empirically the role of population

density in rural education, especially the moderating effect of population density on

the outcomes of education policies. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

From 1999 through the early 2000s, China launched a set of major nationwide policies

aimed at universalizing 9-year compulsory education in rural areas. Using difference-

in-differences and triple difference strategies, we show that the policies significantly

increased the probability of junior high school enrollment of rural children and, more

importantly, these policies were more effective in densely populated regions. These

fi ndings confi rm the importance of population density to rural education.

Keywords: enrollment rate, policy effectiveness, rural population density, universal

9-year compulsory education policy

JEL codes: H41, J24, O18

I. Introduction

Today, many developing countries are facing the challenge of improving rural education

while the process of urbanization is taking place. On the one hand, because of relatively

low urbanization rates and human capital accumulation, the potential for growth in those

countries largely depends on rural education for local children (Krueger and Lindahl,

2001; Fleisher et al., 2010; Che and Zhang, 2018; United Nations, 2019). On the other

hand, due to factors such as new technologies and economic globalization, the speed of

urbanization in developing countries is much greater than it was for developed countries

in the past (Wan and Zhang, 2017). As the dominant suppliers of rural education,

©2022 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Rural School Participation 5

governments are supposed to act appropriately in a rapidly changing environment.

Accordingly, rural education policymaking ought to be forward looking and should

develop long-range planning.

Why does rapid urbanization matter? One reason is related to rural population

density. Although there are many possible causes of poor rural education, low population

density in rural areas may be a contributing factor. As many education costs are fi xed

or quasi-fi xed, and can be diluted by students, education involves strong economies of

scale (Tholkes and Sederberg, 1990; Chakraborty et al., 2000). Local education faces

a dilemma if the population is dispersed. A large central school can take advantage of

economies of scale. However, extra commuting costs or boarding costs arise. Perhaps

students can attend small schools nearby, but the consequences are either high average

education costs or inferior quality schooling (Andrews et al., 2002; Bard et al., 2006;

Ares Abalde, 2014). From the supply and demand sides, low population density makes

rural education unwieldy. With rapid urbanization, rural population density decreases

considerably, and this problem is gaining in importance.

Despite the potential signifi cance of population density for rural education, there are

few relevant empirical studies on this topic. There are several studies about economies

of scale in education, impacts of commuting and boarding, and even teachers’

willingness to serve in remote schools (Sargent and Hannum, 2005; Luschei, 2012;

Li and Liu, 2014; Wei, 2016), but an overall evaluation of the causal effect of low

population density on rural children’s educational attainment is lacking. However, such

evaluations are crucial for making projections and guiding actions. One reason for the

research gap may involve endogeneity of population density. It is difficult to specify

exogenous sources of variation in rural population densities and identify the causality

between rural school participation and local population density. Nevertheless, another

approach is to identify the effects of educational policies affecting various regions

and examine heterogeneity of policy effectiveness among regions with different rural

population density. This study exploits a dramatic change in policy to evaluate the role

of population density in rural education in China.

Recognizing that 9-year compulsory education had not been universalized in

practice, from 1999 through the early 2000s, China launched a set of major education

policies aimed at increasing compulsory education enrollment nationwide. The universal

9-year compulsory education policies (UNCEP) consist of several specific supply-

sided initiatives, including enhancing school facilities, promoting teacher quality, and

providing student subsidies. As the enrollment gap mostly came from rural children,

UNCEP measures were in no small part targeted at rural areas, particularly where the

enrollment rate was relatively low.