Collective China wisdom.
The International Economy took a survey on a subject of intense interest from the halls of the U.S. Congress to the port of Shanghai, from the Ruhr industrial zone in Germany to the thousands of small factories dotting southeast Asia.
The question?
"At what level should the Chinese revalue the renminbi to achieve some semblance of equilibrium?"
Over 60 distinguished experts weighed in.
Just let it float.
Milton Friedman, Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, and recipient, 1976 Nobel Memorial Prize for Economic Science
Samuel Brittan, Columnist, Financial Times L. William Seidman, Chief Commentator, CNBC
Christopher Whalen, Managing Director, Institutional Risk Analytics
"REMOVE CAPITAL CONTROLS and let the renminbi float." --Nigel Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer
"LET IT FLOAT after strengthening the banks." --Allan H. Meltzer, Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute
"LET IT FLOAT while largely unblocking the capital account." --Charles Wolf, Jr., Senior Economic Adviser and Corporate Fellow, International Economics, RAND
Keep the renminbi at present levels.
Richard N. Cooper, Maurits C. Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University
Gina Despres, Senior Vice President, Capital Research & Management Co.
Wendy K. Dobson, Director, Institute for International Business Rotman School of Management
Sieve S. Forbes, Jr., President & CEO, Forbes Inc.
Yasuhiro Goto, Editorial Writer, Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Steve H. Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics, The Johns Hopkins University
Mieczyslaw Karczmar, Deutsche Bank Securities
Ronald I. McKinnon, William D. Eberle Professor of International Economics, Stanford University
Edward Yardeni, Chief Investment Strategist, Oak Associates Ltd.
"Move to a trade-weighted index and float it within a band."
--Teh Kok Peng, President, GIC Special Investments Pte. Ltd.
Then tell the G3 to back off.
"A forced revaluation under pressure from the G3 would not only fail to correct global imbalances but would have a gross detrimental effect on the Chinese economy, which in turn would undermine growth and macroeconomic stability in Asia. Empirical evidence to support an undervalued renminbi is weak.
Recently, the IMF's report on China has observed, "It's difficult to find persuasive evidence that the renminbi is substantially undervalued." Furthermore, the U.S. Department of Commerce's trade statistics have exaggerated the bilateral imbalances.
The U.S. government should put its own economic house in order rather than act as an arrogant global trade bully."
--Friedrich Wu, Visiting Senior Fellow, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, and former economist, Singapore Ministry of Trade
Increase the renminbi by 5 percent ...
Chris Leung Shiu Kay, Principal China Economist, DBS Bank
Jon Thorn, India Capital Fund
Daniel H. Rosen, Principal, China Strategic Advisory, LLC
...
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