Climate change and crop production nexus: assessing the role of technological development for sustainable agriculture in Vietnam

• Date: 12 April 2024
• Pages: 177-200
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2022-0138
• Published date: 12 April 2024
• Subject Matter: Public policy & environmental management,Environmental issues,Climate change
• Author: Abbas Ali Chandio,Huaquan Zhang,Waqar Akram,Narayan Sethi,Fayyaz Ahmad

Climate change and crop production

nexus: assessing the role of

technological development for

sustainable agriculture in Vietnam

Abbas Ali Chandio and Huaquan Zhang

College of Economics, Sichuan Agricultural University,

Chengdu, China

Waqar Akram

Sukkur IBA University, Karachi, Pakistan

Narayan Sethi

National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, India, and

Fayyaz Ahmad

School of Economics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China

Abstract

Purpose –This study aims to examine the effects of climate change and agriculturaltechnologies on crop

productionin Vietnam for the period 1990–2018.

Design/methodology/approach –Several econometric techniques –such as the augmented Dickey–

Fuller, Phillips–Perron, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, variance decomposition

method (VDM)and impulse response function (IRF) are used for the empirical analysis.

Findings –The results of the ARDL bounds test conf‌irm the signif‌icant dynamic relationship among the

variables underconsideration, with a signif‌icance level of 1%. The primary f‌indings indicatethat the average

annual temperatureexerts a negative inf‌luence on crop yield, both in the short term and in the long term. The

utilizationof fertilizer hasbeen found to augment crop productivity, whereas the applicationof pesticides has

demonstrated the potential to raise crop production in the short term. Moreover, both the expansion of

cultivated landand the utilization of energy resources have played signif‌icantroles in enhancing agricultural

output across bothin the short term and in the long term. Furthermore, the robustness outcomesalso validate

the statisticalimportance of the factors examined in the context of Vietnam.

© Abbas Ali Chandio,Huaquan Zhang, Waqar Akram, NarayanSethi and Fayyaz Ahmad. Published

by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution

(CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this

article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original

publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/

licences/by/4.0/legalcode

Funding: This research was funded by the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant number:

19CSH029) and the Foreign Youth Talents Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology:

Research on the Impact of ICT, Technology Development and Climate Change on Grain Production in

Asian Countries (No.: QN2022036001).

Conf‌licts of interest: The authors declare no conf‌lict of interest.

Sustainable

agriculture in

Vietnam

177

Received17 November 2022

Revised23 July 2023

16November 2023

Accepted13 December 2023

InternationalJournal of Climate

ChangeStrategies and

Management

Vol.16 No. 2, 2024

pp. 177-200

EmeraldPublishing Limited

1756-8692

DOI 10.1108/IJCCSM-11-2022-0138

The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:

https://www.emerald.com/insight/1756-8692.htm

Research limitations/implications –This study provides persuasive evidence for policymakers to

emphasize advancementsin intensive agriculture as a means to mitigate the impacts of climatechange. In the

research, theauthors use average annual temperature as a surrogatemeasure for climate change, while using

fertilizer and pesticide usage as surrogate indicators for agricultural technologies. Future research can

concentrateon the impact of ICT, climatechange (specif‌ically pertaining to maximum temperature,minimum

temperature and precipitation), and agricultural technological improvements that have an impact on cereal

production.

Originality/value –To the best of the authors’knowledge, thisstudy is the f‌irst to examine how climate

change and technologyeffect crop output in Vietnam from 1990 to 2018. Variouseconometrics tools, such as

ARDL modeling,VDM and IRF, are used for estimation.

Keywords Climate change, Agricultural technologies, Crop production, ARDL modeling

Paper type Research paper

1. Introduction

The world has undergone continuous change, which has had progressive effects on the

sustainability of resources, but it has also caused signif‌icantenvironmental problems, such

as climate change. The climate is the long-term pattern of meteorological conditions,

whereas any change in climate after a lengthyperiod due to human or nonhuman activities

is considered climate change (Ahsan et al., 2020;Menegaki et al., 2022). For instance, the

increasing concentration of emissions and greenhouse gases (GHG) resulting from human

activities predictsan increase in temperature and a shift in rainfall patterns,thereby causing

climate change (Gul et al., 2022a). National Aeronautics and Space Administration (2020)

estimated that the average global temperature has augmented by 1.02°C since 1880. It

caused an increase in temperature,CO

2

emissions, f‌loodingand droughts, which diminished

agricultural output (Jan et al.,2021). Whereas climate change posed a threat to food security

by reducing the yield ofprimary cereals like maize, wheat and rice (He et al., 2022).

In pursuit of this objective, the existingbody of scholarly works provides substantiation

about climatic variables, including temperature and precipitation, and their impacts on

agricultural and cereal productivity(Gul et al., 2022b;Sivakumar, 2011), for example, stated

that crop production is heavily dependent on climatic conditions and thus the principal

victim of climatic vulnerabilities. According to Urban et al. (2012),by2030–2050, aggregate

crop yield could decrease by 18% on average, while temperature could rise by 1.8°C–2.2°C.

As a result of their prominenceand impact on global food security, the United Nations (2015)

designated zero hunger and climate action as sustainable development goals (SDGs 2 and

13) for 2030.

The utilization of agricultural technologies, including fertilizers and pesticides,amplif‌ies

the climate-induced effects on agricultural systems. The extended duration of farming

seasons and elevated temperaturesfoster the expansion of insects and weeds, hence leading

to heightened utilization of fertilizers and insecticides. Nonetheless, these technologies are

the principal means of preservingsoil fertility and crop yields. Fertilizers (both organicand

inorganic) serve as plant feeding (Guo et al.,2021). These are either produced via natural

processes (e.g. animal waste, plant-basedmaterials and biosolids) or created artif‌icially (e.g.

ammonium nitrate, di-ammonium phosphate and potassium chloride) (Finch et al.,2014).

Pesticides, on the other hand, are inorganic or organic chemicals used to manage diseases,

pests and weeds. Insecticides,herbicides, rodenticides, fungicides and nematicides are forms

of pesticides (Sharmaet al.,2019).

Fertilizers and pesticides are now an essential aspect of crop improvement and plant

protection, makingfarming reliant on the extensive use of these technologies. Ali et al. (2020)

also conf‌irmed that the surge in crop yields in the postgreen revolution era primarily

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