Are US antidumping cases being crowded out by other forms of protectionism?

Author:Prashant Desai, Robert M. Feinberg
Position:Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Pages:1-7
SUMMARY

Purpose The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied by economists in various ways. Since President Donald Trump came into office and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US firms to file antidumping (AD) cases would seem to have been reduced. This study aims to examine whether such a reduction in AD cases has occurred. Design/methodolog... (see full summary)

 
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Are US antidumping cases being
crowded out by other forms
of protectionism?
Prashant Desai
Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, and
Robert M. Feinberg
Department of Economics, American University, Washington,
District of Columbia, USA
Abstract
Purpose The issue of substitutability betweenvarious modes of import protection has been studied by
economists in various ways. Since President Donald Trump came into ofce and soon started imposing
tariffs, the need by US rms to le antidumping (AD) cases wouldseem to have been reduced. This study
aims to examinewhether such a reduction in AD cases has occurred.
Design/methodology/approach Quarterly US AD lings via a negativebinomial regression analysis
are explained. Patterns based on data from 1995 through 2016 are obtained rst and then predict US AD
petitionsfor 2017 and 2018.
Findings The authors reject a hypothesis of substitution away from AD in the Trump era of general
protectionism but do nd some support for the notionthat protection moves downstream, with greater than
predictedAD lings in downstream metals sectors.
Originality/value This is the rst study to examine the possibilityof trade policy substitutability in the
Trump era.
Keywords Antidumping, Trade policy substitution, Trump tariffs
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied
by economists in various ways. One concern with much of the empiricalwork has been the
endogeneity between alternative modes of protection; however, we now have a natural
experiment for the USA. SinceJanuary 2017, when President Donald Trump came into ofce
and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US rms to le antidumping (AD) cases
would seem to have been reduced. Arguably, these Trump tariffs are exogenous with
respect to AD petitions. In what follows,we explain quarterly US AD lings, based on data
from 1995 through 2016, and then from this predict US AD petitions for 2017 and 2018.
We compare our estimate to the actual number of petitions in those years and interpret the
difference as the Trump effect.
Consider the timeline of President Trumps tariff policy. He had campaigned against
existing and potential future trade agreements) but it was not anticipated by most
economists that he would act unilaterally to impose large tariffs on taking ofce.
Bloomberg News (2018) presents detailson trade actions under the Trump Administration,
JEL classication F1
Forms of
protectionism
1
Received16 September 2019
Revised19 November 2019
Accepted19 November 2019
Journalof International Trade
Lawand Policy
Vol.19 No. 1, 2020
pp. 1-7
© Emerald Publishing Limited
1477-0024
DOI 10.1108/JITLP-09-2019-0060
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
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