All Quiet on the Western Front: The Outcome of Israel's March 2015 Elections and the Peace Process

• DOI: https://doi.org/10.13169/arabstudquar.38.4.0639
• Published date: 01 October 2016
• Date: 01 October 2016
• Pages: 639-655
• Author: A. Murat Agdemir
• Subject Matter: Israel,Palestine,Arabs,elections,government,peace process,settlements,religious parties

ASQ 38.4 Produced and distributed by Pluto Journals

A. Murat Agdemir, International Security and Terrorism; Turkish Ministry of National Defence.

ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT:

THE OUTCOME OF ISRAEL’S MARCH 2015

ELECTIONS AND THE PEACE PROCESS

A. Murat Agdemir

Abstract: The March 17, 2015 parliamentary elections were held roughly two years after

the previous elections. According to the results, the incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu has formed the new government. It controls 61 parliamentary seats, and is

a narrow, right-wing and ultra-Orthodox government with the narrowest of Knesset

majorities. Its composition shows that it would be one of the most right-wing administra-

tions in Israel’s history, and there is hardly a mention or plan of resolving the Palestinian

conflict. This article tries to analyze whether the electoral results open up new possibili-

ties for the peace process and Israel’s security agenda.

Keywords: Israel, Palestine, Arabs, elections, government, peace process, settlements,

religious parties

Introduction

The most recent parliamentary elections took place on March 17, 2015, about

two years after the 2013 elections. As usual in Israel, no party won an overall

majority; however, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud remained the

largest party. Parliamentary elections in Israel are supposed to take place every

four years, but conflicts and infighting within governing coalitions often lead to

the dissolution of governments and the calling of early elections. Ever since

1988 not a single Israeli government has managed to serve the whole of its

four-year term of office.1 The March 2015 elections were unusual in Israel’s

political history, because it was the second time that a Knesset (Israel’s parlia-

ment) election took place two years after the previous one, which is the shortest

time in 50 years.2

The reason that the 2015 elections were held only two years after the previous

elections lies in the results of 2013. According to the results of the previous elec-

tion, the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties of Likud, the Jewish Home, Shas,

United Torah Judaism, and Yisrael Beiteinu won a total of 61 seats in the Knesset.

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However, when Benjamin Netanyahu sought to establish a coalition with his “nat-

ural partners,”3 due to an ad hoc alliance between the Jewish Home and Yesh Atid,

a different government that included Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, the Jewish

Home, and Hatnuah, but excluded the ultra-Orthodox parties (Shas and United

Torah Judaism), was forced on Netanyahu.4 The government often found it diffi-

cult to function and by late December 2014, as a result of the discussions about the

proposed Jewish nation-state bill and the 2015 budget, tensions peaked. Perhaps

the principal catalyst of the dissolution of the government was Netanyahu’s con-

troversial Jewish nation-state bill, which among other things would have removed

Arabic as one of Israel’s official languages and would have declared Israel as the

nation-state of the Jewish people.5 The bill was opposed by Justice Minister Tzipi

Livni and Finance Minister Yair Lapid, but approved by the rest of the cabinet.

There have been intense disagreements between Netanyahu, Lapid, and Livni.

Livni and Lapid argued that enshrining in law Israel’s place as a Jewish state

would have discriminatory consequences for Israel’s Arab citizens. On the other

hand, Netanyahu accused them of trying to undermine his government and told

them that he had no choice but to dissolve the Knesset and to call for new elec-

tions.6 Netanyahu claimed that his cabinet was “contrarian from the day of its

inception” and was “forced upon him.”7 On December 8, 2014, the Knesset

approved a measure that dissolved itself, and new elections were scheduled for

March 17, 2015.8

In Israel, elections for the Knesset are supposed to be held at least every four

years. All citizens above the age of 18 are eligible to vote. Voters simply select

one party. They vote for a list of candidates, and not for a particular person on the

list. The electoral system is based on nation-wide proportional representation, and

the number of seats that each party gains in the Knesset is proportional to the num-

ber of votes it receives.9 With the amendment of the Governance Law in 2014,

new policies have been in place for the first time during the 2015 election. The

most significant of which was the raising of the electoral threshold from 2 percent

to 3.25 percent.10 This change encouraged parties to join forces, and the Arab par-

ties especially took advantage of this and created a joint list for the election.11

For almost Israel’s entire existence, virtually all the issues on the agenda of

every election have been economy, the settlements, security, and diplomacy.

Neoliberal policies have transformed Israel’s economy into a bone of contention

among the political parties, at least for the past 25 years, and many elections have

been fought over issues of socio-economy, such as economic equality and income

gaps. On the other hand, a significant point which has been a bone of contention

in Israel’s elections since 1967 has been the retention of territories captured in the

June 1967 war, the future of the settlements, and the peace process. It is generally

agreed that the only realistic way to end the Israeli-Palestnian conflict is by means