60 Years of Uncertainty

• Author: Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri
• Position: HITES AHIR is a senior research officer in the IMF's Research Department, NICHOLAS BLOOM is professor of economics at Stanford University, and DAVIDE FURCERI is deputy division chief in the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.
• Pages: 60-62

Our new index provides novel insights

into an amorphous concept

Hites Ahir, Nicholas Bloom, and Davide Furceri

58 FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT | March 2020

Years of

Uncertainty

60

“If I had to identify a theme at the outset of the

new decade it would be increasing uncertainty.”

Kristal ina Georgieva, Managing Director of

the IMF, Peterson Institute for International

Economics, January 17, 2020

I

t is well-known that uncer tainty reduces the

willingness of f‌irms to hire and invest and

of consumers to spend. Yet it is a nebulous

concept, because it ref‌lects uncertainty in

the minds of consumers, managers, and poli-

cymakers about future events (that may or may

not happen). It is also a broad concept since it

relates to macro phenomena like GDP growth

and micro phenomena like the growth rate of

f‌irms—a s well as other events like elect ions,

wars, and climate change.